Tuesday, June 9, 2015

Fantasy Football, the game of Champions

The Fantasy Football talk starts now.

After the NFL Draft the mock draft rankings for fantasy football started to pour in. Rankings falling from 1 to 300 and even in some cases all the way to 500. A lot of information to pick through and trying to decide where the real 'steals' of the draft are. Well I am going to tell you who to look for and where. This is my forewarning, I am going to be basing ALL of my rankings on standard scoring (non PPR).

So where do we start? The most important position in Fantasy Football, running back. Running backs are the best position to have in Fantasy because of one simple reason. The gap between the top 10 running backs and 11-whatever are so large that having a high scoring running back can be lethal on your team, or even 2.

Clearly there are some obvious choices. Jamal Charles, Peterson, Bell, Lynch, Lacy, and Forte should be some of the first names off of the board. However finding someone who can be just as productive in the running back 2 spot will transform your team. Justin Forsett, Alfred Blue, and CJ Anderson seemed to pick up that helped teams jump up last season into title contenders.

When looking for a running back you want to check a few boxes. This is what your looking for.

1. Feature back - takes 85% to 90% of the snaps. Especially goal line snaps. You need your guy to be getting as many chances as possible and don't need another back taking your snaps.

2. Decent back up - you need someone who is capable enough to handle 'garbage time' where he isn't risking injury within the the last few drives running halfback dive. I know you might not believe this but you don't want your guy playing up 40. Yes you might be able to squeeze a few more points out of the blowout but that could cost you the player for a few weeks due to injury.

3. Running offense - What I mean by running offense is that they are going to get around 20 carries a game. Also, know the goal line tendencies of the offensive play caller. Teams like New England tend to throw more in goal line settings than others. Denver is another team that throws in the goal line. Know the team your player suits up for.

4. Value - This is pretty simple. If you can find someone who checks all these boxes in a 5th or 6th round you stand the chance of getting the steal of the draft.


So Who Are My Guys?

1. Joique Bell - Detroit Lions




Why does Joique Bell is currently ranked low 40's in most fantasy rankings. Joique Bell for me checks all of the boxes above. We saw the Detriot Lions begin to use the running back position drastically more towards the end of the season. Theo Riddick saw most of that success because of injury to Bell and Reggie Bush.  I think with a new coach town



2. Devonta Freeman - Atlanta Falcons

Freeman is entering his second season as the Falcons lead running back. Ever since the decline
of Michael Turner the Falcons haven't been able to command a strong running game. They even brought in Steven Jackson to try and fill that void. Freeman is the next man up to try that spot. This time though it is his job to lose. Entering the season as 'the guy' could really lead to a successful season for Freeman.  Freeman's limited touches last year he still managed to average 3.8 yards per carry and the Falcons have been extremely vocal about going back to their running game this season. I fully expect the former Florida State Seminole to have a break out season and with the drafting of Tevin Coleman owners might fear investing in Freeman but with his predicted draft stock in the high 90's he is an incredibly low risk high reward guy. He reminds me a lot of Justin Forsett's situation last year.

3. Lamar Miller - Miami Dolphins

Lamar Miller is a guy that everyone knows and isn't sneaking up on anyone. He suffered a lot
of injuries and nagging ailments all season. He however in the end of last year averaged over 5 yards a carry. He split a lot reps with Knowshon Moreno but now with Moreno out of the picture Miller will easily see 20 plus carries a game. Miller could be a great number 2 back if you can get him in the early 4th round or late 3rd. People will avoid Miller due to past injuries but for me, the upside is so great and being able to snag a great running back number 2 is way to valuable to pass on. Especially if he drops. 

Who Do You Avoid?


CJ Anderson - Denver Broncos


I think the Denver running game is going to be the biggest guessing game going into next season. Yes, CJ Anderson could easily steal the show and be a very solid number 1 running back. He also could fall into that running back by committee trap with very very good quality backs behind him.   Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman both saw action last year and are expected to see the field again. With the load being split maybe 3 ways Anderson could really struggle to get his touches, especially in the red zone where you could expect to see more of the bigger Hillman. 

Arian Foster - Houston Texans

I am always hesitant to take Foster. He is going to get his touches. He is in a running offense. Perfect. But he is going to miss at least 4 games every year because of injury. He has only played the whole season twice, he has also missed time 4 times. In 2 of those seasons he missed over half the year. He is just too much risk to be a first round draft pick for me. If he falls to the second... now you have my attention but top 10 is too high for the risk your taking.





Jeremy Hill - Cincinnati Bengals

Jeremy Hill is the number 1 guy in Cinci and could expect to see alot of touches this coming year. He is going to be having a backup who wants his job back in Giovani Bernard. Benard is far more a play maker than Hill but battled injuries last year. With the chance that the Bengals could go back to Benard drafting Hill in the 2nd round is another risk that the payment isn't high enough.





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