Look at the quarterback, do you trust him? Essentially if you look at the quarterback of their team and you go 'ehhhhhhhh' I would tell you to pass. Quarterbacks make receivers, receivers never make quarterbacks. Jordy Nelson is a great example. He is easily a top 5 fantasy receiver every year but if he was on the New York Jets... we probably wouldn't know his name.
Find someone who didn't just sign a big contract. I am adding this up to 100% mental. After players, especially wide outs, get paid they tend to take a year off because they got their money. Look for a guy who is trying to get more money or sign a new contract. They have something to prove. That is motivation that is just a little bonus that may help you get a couple of plays that you might not get normally *cough cough* Dez Bryant.
Finally, You don't want someone who has a 'great young talent' next to him. What do I mean, if you're looking at drafting a good old veteran but the team just selected a few new wide outs early in the draft, avoid them. They are going to see their production go down greatly. Want an example? Cool. Andre Johnson was a top 7 fantasy wide out 3 years in a row but then last year plummeted to a top 25 wide out. Why? DeAndre Hopkins and Demaris Johnson. A young super talented guy who were taking a lot of the balls from Johnson.
So now I tell you all this but what you're really here for, names.
Vincent Jackson - Tampa Bay
This is my number 1 sleeper in this draft at the wide out position is Vincent Jackson. He is currently going high 60's in most mock drafts and I have seen him fall all the way to 70. Why? He has had a couple of TERRIBLE years after being a big consistent target. He however moved to Tampa Bay where he got a monster contract but hasn't done much. The reason being he hasn't had a real NFL quarterback since he's been there. The closest thing to a a quarterback he has had is Josh Freeman... and he isn't in the league anymore. With Jamis Winston coming in I know his numbers will go way up. Yes, Mike Evans is there too but they don't have a tight end or a number 3 wide out so that means all the passes are going to those 2 guys. Jackson will get his, especially for the value you're going to get him in the late 6th round.
Nelson Agholor - Philadelphia Eagles
The first round draft pick of the Eagles going into the Chip Kelly offense. We can expect him to see the snaps and have production. Why? Because Chip has already said he's going to be getting Jeremy Maclin's snaps. We all saw what Maclin did last year before getting over paid at KC. Agholor is getting projected in the late 70's high 80's. Which at that value you can draft and stash. If he is as productive as Jeremy Maclin last year then you just got a number 1 receiver in the 6th or 7th round. This could be a huge trade value for you down the road or a GREAT flex play.
Victor Cruz - New York Giants
Victor Cruz. You forgot he was in the NFL didn't you? With the busting on the scene that Odell Beckham Jr. has done this past year its almost like Victor Cruz isn't an elite receiver anymore... Cruz is projected as late as the 10th round. For a guy who has blazing speed and, outside of last season's injury, has been the definition of consistency. I think he could even be better than previous years because of the New York Giant's new offense. They are more pass heavy than ever and with Beckham Jr. on the opposite side drawing a lot of eyes after last year. I think Cruz could be the steal of the entire draft.
Tyler Lockett - Seattle Seahawks
Tyler Lockett. We all know him. The Kansas State product who showed the ability to make the big play almost every game. OU can tell you a few stories. His big play ability is so attractive to me that I can't think that in the depleted wide receiver position at Seattle he will see reps and have the potential to be a rookie standout. You can maybe even get Tyler Lockett with your last pick in the draft which generally are players that won't ever see your line up. Draft Lockett and stash him for a few weeks. Who knows? In week 6 he could be a proven commodity. He is a gamble, but a gamble with a low cost.
Who do you avoid?
This one will take people by surprise. But think about it. With you first round or second round pick you need a sure thing. AJ Green is not a sure thing. Ankle and foot issues hindered him last year and his quarterback may have hindered him more. I love AJ Green I however hate the Bengals starting quarterback, Andy Dalton. I wouldn't bet on him being able to get Green the ball as much as he needs too. Therefore not worth my first 2 picks.
Sammy Watkins - Buffalo Bills
Great receiver. Great upside long term. Read the paragraph above though. No one can throw him the ball. He's rated way too high for me. Not worth that high of a pick, for me at least.
Brandin Cooks - New Orleans Saints
The Saints are moving to a more running offense taking the pressure off of Drew Brees which means less pass attempts. Therefore less balls for Cooks. Cooks is already a possession receiver where his gains are small, with the volume of those catches dropping picking him in the top 5 rounds doesn't seem worth it to me. If you are in a PPR league than this might be an option but at the value he will be drafted in standard scoring I would pass on him unless he drops to a later round.
No comments:
Post a Comment